For this month’s Global Health and Development meetup, we will have a presentation by Andrés Parrado of Innovations for Poverty Action:

Context Matters: The importance of Market Size and Structure for Effective Graduation and Cash Programming

There is a large and dynamic literature focused on the effect of large unconditional cash transfers and poverty graduation programs. The literature consistently documents positive effects for program recipients, most notably on consumption and asset accumulation. Some papers have also reported long-term effects, particularly for poverty graduation programs in Bangladesh. But until now, discussions around the generalizability of these results have engaged less with two key contextual factors: the market size and structure.

This talk will show why market size and structure are relevant for the way we understand the plausible long-term effects of unconditional cash transfers and poverty graduation programs. It will discuss the nascent literature around these programs' effects' and market structure, particularly around fiscal multipliers and spillovers. Finally, it will delve into what this means for generalizability and the ex-ante possibility that these programs will have large and sustained impacts in program participants and non participants alike.